The natioanl determined contribution (NDC) of Tunisia represents today the official political framework for the fight against the climate change in Tunisia. With regards to the mitigation objective included in its contribution, Tunisia intends to reduce its GHG emissions in all sectors (energy, industrial processes, agriculture, forestry and other land uses, and waste) by 41% compared to the 2010 base year.

By comparing it to a trend-based scenario, this objective is reflected in a reduction in national GHG emissions of38% in 2030. The mitigation effort will come more particularly by the energy sector, which alone accounts for 75% of emissions reductions. It is expected that the energy sector will reduce its carbon intensity in 2030 by almost half compared to 2010, within the framework of the energy transition policy advocated by the State.

Trajectory of decline in carbon intensity in the energy sector

The setting of this objective is the result of the modelling work carried out by the ANME using the Med Pro Environment energy and climate forecasting model.
To set this mitigation objective, two scenarios were chosen:

  • A trend-based scenario, which reflects the continuation of the current policy on mitigation;

  • A voluntary mitigation trend-based scenario on the development of NAMAs in the fields of energy efficiency and renewable energies.

The potential for reducing GHG emissions in the energy sector arises from the NAMAs planned in the areas of energy efficiency and renewable energies.

With its two components of energy efficiency and renewable energies, energy management is the most important action of the INDC in terms of mitigation of GHG emissions. The implementation of the energy control policy should make it possible to avoid 17 million tons of CO2 by 2030.

Reduction of GHG emissions due to energy efficiency and renewable energy